Why monthly rent × 12 may not be your future income.
Understand contracted rent, vacancy scenarios and expected collections.
Monthly rent × 12 is a useful full-occupancy baseline, but it excludes mid-year lease expiries, rent-free periods, vacancies and collection delays. Break the forecast into separate layers.
Layer 1: Signed contractual rent
Calculate future contractual rent from each lease's effective dates, monthly rent, rent-free periods and confirmed rent steps. Market index movements should not automatically change rent during a fixed-rent term.
Layer 2: Renewal and reletting scenarios
For months not covered by signed leases, make explicit assumptions about renewal, vacancy periods, new rent and rent-free incentives. With limited data, use manual downside, central and upside scenarios. These are not statistical prediction intervals.
Layer 3: When collections are expected
Contractual rent due is not the same as bank receipts. Separate collection delays, recovery of opening arrears and prepayments. Show deposits, management fees, maintenance and other costs separately: a rent collection budget is not net profit.
What public data is available in Hong Kong?
For commercial office units, refer to the private office rental index and average office rents by district and grade. Until Eastcore's office grade is verified, use only the overall index as market context. Do not substitute the flatted factory index to estimate commercial office rents.
RVD private flatted factory rental index provides industrial rental market context, alongside regional average rents and annual district vacancy and supply data. Source: the Rating and Valuation Department of the HKSAR Government / DATA.GOV.HK. Use is subject to the terms of use。
When checked on 26 October 2026, the monthly index files ran to August 2026, while the district vacancy file still related to end-2024. They do not directly represent a particular studio's current rent or vacancy rate.
How do you know whether a forecast is useful?
Save each forecast's data cut-off and assumptions. Using only information known at that date, forecast 1, 3, 6 and 12 months ahead and compare against actual rent, collections and vacancy. A more complex model should first outperform simple baselines.
Try the simplified income scenario demo. This website illustrates the concept only; it is not connected to actual properties or the production forecasting module.